"I hope I am wrong," Air Force Gen. Mike Minihan said in a memo obtained by NBC News last week. But, he continued, his "gut" says the U.S. and China "will fight in 2025," and now is the time to prepare.
The Defense Department told NBC that Minihan's memo is real but "not representative" of DoD policy, pointing instead to 2022's more measured National Defense Strategy. Yet a prediction this dire and specific from such a senior officer—after six months of saber-rattling over Taiwan and years of rising economic tensions—raises the question: Is U.S.-China war inevitable?
A hard line from Washington
- "[N]early every aspect of Chinese-U.S. relations is viewed by both sides through the prism of national security, even matters that were once regarded as positive, such as job-creating investments or co-innovation in breakthrough technologies." [Foreign Affairs / Henry M. Paulson Jr.]
- Washington has reportedly reached a deal with Japan and the Netherlands to limit microchip exports to China. [AP / Dee-Ann Durbin and Aamer Madhani]
- The Biden administration is also reportedly confronting Beijing over Chinese companies' support for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. [Bloomberg / Peter Martin and Jenny Leonard]
- The Marine Corps last week opened a new base in Guam. Located "about equidistant from Japan and Taiwan," it is generally understood to be part of U.S. deterrence of China. [WSJ / Nancy A. Youssef]
New tactics from Beijing
- Chinese President Xi Jinping has reportedly tasked CCP chief political strategist Wang Huning with creating a new Taiwan unification strategy. [Nikkei / Katsuji Nakazawa]
- "China is now trying to mend fences with the outside world as part of a broader effort to improve its global image, reignite economic growth, and disrupt U.S. efforts to unite several key countries into a loose anti-Chinese coalition." [FP / Stephen M. Walt]
U.S.-China war isn't inevitable
- "The U.S. has a goal to avoid a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, but the overriding U.S. interest is to avoid a ruinous war with China. The imperative to avoid a conflict with China should take priority for U.S. leaders." [DEFP / Peter Harris]
- "Further efforts by the U.S. to deter China may only present Beijing with a closing window, encouraging it to use force before its prospects worsen, and precipitating the very conflict the U.S. seeks to prevent." [DEFP / Christopher McCallion]
- "Taiwan's future status is not vital to the security of either the U.S. or Japan, so continued escalation in the direction of military conflict is unwise. ... In addressing the dangerous Taiwan issue, both Tokyo and Washington should put more efforts into creative diplomacy, seeking Taiwan's autonomy without risking an unjustified war that could go nuclear." [DEFP / Lyle Goldstein]
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Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia engagement at DEFP: The people of Ukraine have won the admiration of the world with their courage. Now it is time for realism and restraint. The continuing carnage—on a path to half a million dead and severely wounded—cannot be allowed to continue. Nor can obvious nuclear or other escalation risks simply be wished away. For the sake of Ukraine and also global peace and stability, painful compromises with Russia must be made—the sooner the better.
Read the full compilation of expert opinion here.
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Poll: Americans are concerned about Ukraine — but think U.S. intervention is already enough
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See additional polling from Morning Consult on related topics here.
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Washington debates every individual weapons system: Will ATACMS allow Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia territory and thus escalate the war? Will tanks allow Ukraine to threaten Crimea and thereby cause nuclear escalation? The debate is backward: U.S. leaders should be deciding their strategic goals and limitations and then framing the choice of weapons within that. [...]
The United States has sent so many weapons that U.S. military leaders are getting worried that the country isn’t keeping enough for its own troops! The problem isn’t too few weapons. The problem is that Washington appears to be completely incapable of having an actual discussion about how and where it wants this war to end.
Read the full conversation here.
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